Earlier than this season, if you happen to threw a paper airplane out of the stands and onto the sphere [not advised] with Ceddanne Rafaela on the dish, I’m fairly certain he would have swung at it. However issues are altering in 2026, and we have to focus on what which means while you stack this sudden and newfound restraint atop his already fantastic bag of instruments.
Up till a few months in the past, all of the issues that made Rafaela an excellent baseball participant had been flashy: The pace, the clutch hits, the athleticism; and naturally, his signature skill to play gold glove protection in centerfield with the grace of a gazelle. Right here’s a video showcasing a few of his finest defensive performs from final yr:
However we’re not right here to speak about these, as a result of the factor that’s reworking Rafaela from an excellent to probably nice participant in 2026 is much extra mundane. Right here’s a a lot shorter, and admittedly a lot much less fascinating video showcasing what’s making Rafaela so good in 2026:
That will not appear to be an enormous deal, however that’s Ceddanne Rafaela not swinging at a tempting pitch sweeping out of the zone, and that’s an enormous change from earlier seasons. It’s delicate when it unfolds early in an at bat, nevertheless it’s the important thing to unlocking his ceiling on the plate — And if we’re being truthful, it’s a ceiling that’s far greater than he’s ever been given credit score for.
Anyway, right here’s what occurred later in that very same at-bat as a result of he hung round with a little bit higher rely leverage and proved to Kerkering he wasn’t going to chase the sweeper:
You need a more moderen instance? Right here’s Rafaela taking one other 0-1 pitch on Tuesday. This time, it’s a slider above the zone, which is a location and pitch opponents have all the time used to get him to chase with nice success.
Not right here. Strider needed to come again on the very subsequent pitch with a suggestion decrease and within the strike zone, and right here’s what Rafaela did with that:
Rafaela has all the time been capable of pound pitches within the zone, and for no matter purpose, we’ve largely missed that. Maybe it’s due to his measurement — he’s listed a 5’10” and a 165 kilos. Maybe it’s as a result of he’s a defensive first man. Or possibly it’s as a result of earlier than this yr, he’s swing at something and every part.
Taking away the hyperbole and drilling down on the numbers, Rafaela swung at 59 % of all of the pitches he noticed final yr, which was the third most amongst certified hitters in all of baseball. That was solely barely higher than the 62 % of pitches he swung at in 2024, which was good for the second most in all of baseball.
This yr, out of 188 guys with no less than 2.1 plate appearances per crew recreation? Rafaela ranks 73rd in swing percentage, dropping the quantity to only 48.6 % of the time.
How about simply swinging on the first pitch of an at bat? In each 2024 and 2025, he did that the fourth most of any hitter in baseball. Now, from that very same record of 188 gamers, he’s moved to 71st.
However after all crucial quantity in the case of these things is swinging at pitches out of the zone, and there’s been main enchancment there as properly. Rafaela went from swinging out of the zone essentially the most in all of baseball in 2024, to second most in 2025, to the 46th this season at 34.8 percent. Not solely is he enhancing right here, however he’s doing it with a stat that normally solidifies fairly shortly, and if that continues, you’re speaking a couple of man who can end within the prime ten in MVP voting over the following handful of years.
Give it some thought: He’s nonetheless simply 25-years-old, he performs the very best defensive centerfield within the sport, he’s already put up the third most WAR of anyone in a Crimson Sox uniform for the reason that begin of 2024, he’s acquired above common pace, he performs a premium place, and he’s all the time had a penchant for clutch knocks. What’s going to occur now if we add any semblance of plate self-discipline to the combo.
We principally simply want yet another month of affected person Rafaela on the plate for the numbers to say that is who he’s now (once more, plate self-discipline numbers solidify fast), and if that locks in, let’s simply say Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu are going to have some competitors when it comes to who’s the very best Crimson Sox outfielder over the following handful of years.
