Welcome again to the 2025-26 version of Smash or Pass, wherein we look at potential free agent and commerce targets to find out whether or not the Crimson Sox ought to pursue them and what it could take to land them. Subsequent up, a left-handed pitcher to pair with Garrett Crochet who has been talked about in Red Sox-Royals trade rumors.
Who’s he and the place does he come from?
Cole Ragans is a left-handed pitcher from Gainesville, Florida. He threw 64 innings with the Texas Rangers between 2022 and 2023 earlier than being shipped to Kansas Metropolis in change for fellow large southpaw Aroldis Chapman. He’s began 57 video games for the Royals within the 2.5 seasons since.
If I had been a GM, I would wish to have somebody on workers to say, “Jake, the pitching workers can’t be completely gigantic lefties.” You might say I’ve a kind. Cole Ragans is that sort. Now, not all large lefties are created equally. Some, resembling Payton Tolle, haven’t fairly discovered the arsenal previous the heater. Others, resembling Garrett Crochet, have secondary pitches to enrich the large fastball. The ultimate evolution of the large lefty is the one who has an excellent fastball, a breaking pitch, and a devastating changeup. That’s Tarik Skubal.
Ragan’s fastball isn’t as overpowering as Skubal’s, however his changeup is almost pretty much as good. He makes use of the pitch 24% of the time towards righties, getting swinging strikes on nearly 30% of his choices. He does it with a 44% zone charge on the pitch, so even when it’s in hittable places, opponents can’t contact it. It wasn’t only a small pattern measurement fluke, both. Righties whiffed at an identical charge in 2024 when the pitch accounted for much more of his arsenal.
It’s not simply the changeup, although. His fastball averages about 95 mph, reaching 99 mph at instances. The form isn’t an outlier, however it reveals two-plane motion and misses bats due to velocity and command. He throws the pitch about 50% of the time for a strike charge within the excessive 60s to righties. Final season, the swinging strike charge was 18% towards them, although his 2024 mark of 14% might be a extra lifelike expectation. For reference, Skubal’s 2025 mark was the subsequent finest amongst qualifiers at 16.2%; Garrett Crochet got here in third at 14.5%. It’s a dominant fastball.
However wait, there’s extra. Ragans incorporates a curveball and slider towards righties as effectively. The curveball was used principally in early counts, however he sometimes spiked one in two-strike counts as effectively. The strike charge was abysmal at about 50%, however no person made arduous contact towards it both. It light from his repertoire because the season progressed; I wouldn’t be shocked to see it disappear completely in 2026. The slider, nevertheless, was nice. It was nearly completely a putaway pitch, and it did precisely that. The swinging strike charge was large at 23% towards righties. That quantity may also come down, just like the fastball, however it’s an awesome providing nonetheless.
What about lefties, although? Opponents are likely to stack their lineups with righties towards Ragans, regardless of him having reverse platoon splits. His fastball doesn’t miss bats at practically the identical charge, and he doesn’t use the changeup that’s such a weapon towards righties. His slider is nice, however there isn’t sufficient within the arsenal for him to throw strikes with. Is there a world wherein he can throw the changeup within the zone to same-handed hitters? The Crimson Sox don’t throw same-handed changeups, however it might be an choice. He may add a sinker; it labored for Crochet. It additionally may not matter that a lot. There’s most likely some choice bias at play right here. He doesn’t see many lefties, so those who do stay within the lineup are most likely one of the best of one of the best. The group of lefties that hit towards Ragans posted a cumulative .760 OPS on the season, greater than the league mark of .719. That’s most likely not sound statistical evaluation, however you get the purpose.
So, why was his ERA so excessive? It’s fairly easy, truly. He was harm. In Could, he had two begins the place he allowed 4 runs over 5 innings. Every begin featured decreased velocity. He hit the IL after the second of the 2 poor outings, and when he returned, he gave up 5 runs in three innings, along with his velocity nonetheless missing. He once more hit the IL, however pitched effectively in his closing three begins when he returned in September. Chalk it as much as a misplaced season wherein he by no means obtained an opportunity to get his legs beneath him. Well being is a priority, however he’s a pitcher, and well being is a priority for each pitcher. He’s good.
TL;DR, simply give me his 2025 stats
13 GS, 61.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 38.1% Okay%, 7.8% BB%, 2.50 FIP
Why would he be an excellent match for the Red Sox?
Ragans is beneath management for the subsequent three seasons. He’s making about $5 million this season and about $8 million subsequent season earlier than his closing 12 months of arbitration. Prefer it or not (don’t prefer it, why would you prefer it?), the Crimson Sox are working with wage constraints. The lineup nonetheless has holes, so if you would like Alex Bregman again, you’ll should stay with an affordable beginning pitcher. The Twins don’t appear motivated to maneuver Joe Ryan, so Cole Ragans is on the prime of that record.
Additionally, he’s superior? He struck out 100 hitters in 60 innings. What group would that not be an excellent match for?
Why wouldn’t he be an excellent match on the Crimson Sox?
Is he too much like Garrett Crochet? I do know that sounds loopy as a result of Crochet is a top-five pitcher on the earth, however does having two lefties with comparable arm slots pitching on back-to-back days assist an opposing offense? My intestine says most likely not, however possibly there’s one thing to it. I’m unsure I understand how to code effectively sufficient to analysis that, however I’d attempt. Let me get again to you. Or don’t. As I stated, he’s an excellent match for each group, however the template offers this part, and I’m paid by the phrase, in order that’s what I got here up with.
What would it not take to get him?
There are rumors that the Royals are serious about Jarren Duran. Pitching is pricey, and I feel there would most likely be some prospects altering palms as effectively, however I’m horrible at estimating these items. Go on Twitter and discover one of many 100,000 mock trades which were posted that may also most likely be mistaken.
Present me a cool spotlight.
Right here he’s putting out 12 batters in 2024, a profession excessive. In 2025, he struck out double-digit batters in 5 of his 13 begins.
Final 12 months, I sat right here and compared myself to a cartoon wolf with its eyes bursting out of its head on the considered buying and selling for Garrett Crochet. The remark part — that’s proper, you guys are getting held accountable — principally pooh-poohed the concept. If it weren’t for the opposite lefty with an out-of-this-world changeup in Tarik Skubal, he would have gained the American League Cy Younger. This 12 months, Cole Ragans commerce rumors have me levitating off the bottom and drifting towards the metaphorical irresistible pie on the windowsill. Roster building apart, it is a man you need in your group. SMASH.
