On the evening of February thirteenth, 2025, John Henry lit up a victory cigar to have fun what would in the end flip into one yr of Alex Bregman’s companies. In the present day, practically 14 months later, Alex Bregman is gone, however the ashes from that cigar proceed to catch hearth and create new harmful flames on a seemingly day by day foundation.
Right here’s the place it began:
Quick-forward to right now and the 2026 Pink Sox are out of a gate with an abysmal 1-5 file. Worse but, the fingerprints of the failed Bregman negotiations will be discovered plastered throughout it. Now, after all, there are numerous, many causes for the Sox’ shameful begin, however at the very least two of them are a pair of gamers who’re on this roster particularly as a result of the membership didn’t wish to decide to Bregman long-term at something apart from their value this previous winter. And that’s actually the purpose I wish to get at right here: The Pink Sox want Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin to have strong seasons to have any likelihood of placing the Bregman hearth out. They don’t want them to be MVP or Cy Younger candidates, however they do (at minimal) want them to come back near replicating their 2025 campaigns.
To cement why that is the case, let’s check out the timeline for the reason that begin of the brand new yr. At midday on January 14, lower than 100 hours after the information broke on social media, the Chicago Cubs formally introduced the signing of Bregman, which he additionally personally retweeted.
Lower than three hours later, the Pink Sox made their push to shift the narrative. Jeff Passan broke the story of how Boston determined to spend the cash initially allotted for Bregman:
So now the cash was spent, however not on the hitter they desperately wanted. And the explanation for all of that is after all as a result of they determined play footsie with Bregman for thus lengthy that by the point mid January rolled round, the entire different huge, right-handed, infield bats which may have been value a rattling to signal like — Pete Alonso and Bo Bichette — have been already off the board. (For comparability, Alonso obtained 5 years at $155 million, and Bichette obtained three years at $126 million.)
So, as an alternative, the Pink Sox determined to make use of the cash that was presupposed to go to a kind of bats on Ranger Suarez, and the entire thing simply grew to become this good encapsulation of what occurs whenever you attempt to work it backwards and make the roster match the price range as an alternative of bending the price range to suit the roster’s wants.
However we nonetheless weren’t performed, as a result of regardless of many of the cash being spent, there was nonetheless a big gap left at third base. This meant the Pink Sox needed to commerce from their new discovered “extra” of beginning pitching to get the right-handed infield bat they nonetheless lacked. Not surprisingly, they most likely couldn’t get via a dialog for any of the bats they actually wished with out Connelly Early, Payton Tolle or Marcelo Mayer’s identify arising, so that they ultimately needed to set their sights decrease on Caleb Durbin as a part of a perplexing commerce that went down like this on February 9:
And naturally the cherry on high of all of it is that Harrison is each one of many guys who came to visit within the Devers commerce and the arm the entrance workplace deemed expendable after they used the Alex Bregman cash to signal one other beginning pitcher. That’s the man they used to amass a younger third baseman after they managed to fumble away each Devers and Bregman.
So make no mistake, these transactions are all linked, and this complete season goes to be a referendum on the novel reconstruction of the irregular roster left behind when the Bregman negotiations fell aside. Oh, and in virtually poetic vogue, Alex Bregman and the Cubs will go to Fenway for the final collection of the season on September twenty fifth via the twenty seventh. The environment for that three recreation set going to really feel like a jury releasing their verdict at a homicide trial.
However let’s get again to Suarez and Durbin particularly. They must be good to forestall this Bregman factor from changing into radioactive. Not simply because their presence right here is so clearly linked to Bregman’s departure in 2026, however as a result of actually all the pieces else linked to Bregman’s arrival in 2025 has already become a flaming trainwreck.
There’s dropping the second spherical decide of the 2025 draft for only one yr of Bregman’s companies. There’s Rafael Devers throwing himself a pity get together after Bregman took over at third base. After which, after all, there’s the following wage dump commerce that’s left the Pink Sox lineup with a noticeable lack of thump ever since.
However you already know what’s loopy? Even at that time within the proceedings, this complete odyssey was nonetheless very salvageable. All they needed to do was pay Bregman a fraction of the cash they dumped within the Devers deal and cling onto the younger guys they obtained again. As an alternative, they by no means met the second when it got here to a long-term Bregman contract, and have since traded away each James Tibbs and Kyle Harrison in extremely questionable strikes.
To this point within the very early output of the 2026 season, James Tibbs has an 1.827 OPS in Triple-A, and Kyle Harrison regarded nice in his one begin with the Brewers, which included eight strike outs in 5 innings of labor.
And simply to be full right here, the Pink Sox are additionally paying $4 million for every of the subsequent two years for Jordan Hicks, who was so dangerous in Boston after coming again as a part of the Devers commerce final yr that they needed to transfer him to Chicago over the winter in a deal the place the White Sox will solely pay for a part of his wage.
So as soon as once more, so far as this entrance workplace is anxious, Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin must be good! As a result of up to now, actually all the pieces else linked to Alex Bregman’s tenure right here has turned poisonous, and with each Suarez and Durbin being below staff management for at the very least the subsequent 5 years, the one means this story has a cheerful ending for the parents who set the wheels in movement is that if these two guys find yourself being helpful contributors to a profitable baseball staff. (No stress although!)
And to be clear, these guys simply must be good, not nice. The Pink Sox don’t want Suarez to be a Cy Younger candidate, they’ve Garrett Crochet for that. They simply want him to be the man that posted a 3.25 ERA during the last 5 years earlier than he obtained his huge payday. The Pink Sox don’t want Caleb Durbin to completely change Alex Bregman, they simply want him to appear to be the man who completed third in rookie of the yr voting final season.
However up to now out of the gate, Suarez and Durbin look much more like guys turning to stone within the continued curse of all the pieces that touches the Alex Bregman internet versus guys who’re able to make a significant contribution to the 2026 Pink Sox.
Now the flip facet of that is Suarez has made only one dangerous begin in a Pink Sox uniform up to now, Durbin is barely 18 at-bats into his Pink Sox tenure, and baseball has a behavior of constructing anyone who says something concerning the first week of any season appear to be a idiot. However man, one thing about this feels ominous. Suarez was additionally horrible in his outing for Crew Venezuela towards Japan within the World Baseball Traditional by which he gave up 5 runs in simply 2.2 innings of labor. And worse but, this can be a man who is thought for pitching nicely in huge video games and carries a 1.48 ERA in 42.2 innings of postseason work. When you think about how dangerous he was towards Japan and that he was dealing with off towards Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it’s minor miracle Venezuela obtained via that recreation and profitable the event. Suarez was one of many huge headline names on the staff, and he performed virtually no position in serving to them win.
Then there’s Durbin, who seems like he obtained absolutely the most out of his capability in 2025. If he can replicate that, implausible! However he additionally may be a kind of guys who turns right into a pumpkin as rapidly as he confirmed indicators of promise and may by no means replicate that near-3.0 WAR season once more.
Both means, these are the stakes for Suarez, Durbin, the entrance workplace, and this complete 2026 Pink Sox season. Each the staff and most of its essential characters have gotten off to about as dangerous of a begin possible, however I don’t wish to begin shoveling dust on them fairly but. Baseball has a humorous means of typically making the primary week nothing greater than a mirage and dealing out the precise reverse hand for the remainder of the summer season. For example, simply final season the Brewers (Durbin’s outdated staff), gave up 46 runs of their first 4 video games en path to an 0-4 begin. They then after all went on to win 97 video games and had the bottom ERA of any staff within the Nationwide League.
That is traditional baseball! It should scare you with faux monsters whereas hiding the true ones for later within the proceedings. Who is aware of, two weeks from now we may be singing the praises of each Suarez and Durbin and speaking about how dangerous Bregman appears to be like in Chicago. However till or except that occurs, we’re going to be left to confront the fallout from these fateful winter nights when Alex Bregman got here into and left the Pink Sox group.
