What the Red Sox need to do to strengthen their playoff position

Effectively, issues have seemingly taken a fast flip for the more serious for the Purple Sox’ playoff possibilities within the final week.

Final Friday, the Purple Sox had an opportunity so as to add to their half-game lead over the Yankees for the highest wild-card spot within the American League. Now, they’re three video games again of the Yankees and are sitting within the third wild-card spot with solely a 1.5-game lead over the surging Guardians.

Any hopes of Boston profitable the division have additionally been dashed. The Purple Sox are six video games again of the Blue Jays for first place within the AL East, seemingly needing a miracle to seize their first division title since 2018.

So, it’s clear the Purple Sox are battling for one of many three wild-card spots with 9 video games to go. FanGraphs nonetheless provides them a powerful likelihood at making the postseason as effectively at 82.8 %, regardless that that’s down from 90.1 % final week.

Because the Purple Sox start a three-game set in opposition to the Rays over the weekend earlier than taking over the Blue Jays and Tigers subsequent week, right here’s what they should do relative to every wild-card contender to strengthen their playoff place.

Guardians

The Purple Sox enter the weekend 1.5 video games forward of the Guardians, who’ve yet one more further sport on their remaining schedule than the Purple Sox. Cleveland is at Minnesota for a four-game set this weekend, with a doubleheader scheduled for Saturday. The Guardians shut out the season at house with a pair of three-game units in opposition to the Tigers and Rangers.

The Purple Sox gained the season sequence over the Guardians, giving them the tiebreaker. Which means Cleveland must win at the least two extra video games than Boston to surpass it within the standings earlier than the season ends.

Playoff odds: 25.4 % (by way of FanGraphs)

Rangers

Texas nonetheless has an out of doors shot of catching Boston, coming into the weekend 4 video games again of the Purple Sox for the ultimate wild-card spot. The Rangers have a three-game set at house in opposition to the Marlins and a three-game sequence at house in opposition to the Twins to begin subsequent week.

If Texas beneficial properties floor on Boston over these two sequence, the Rangers-Guardians matchup in Cleveland subsequent weekend might assist the Purple Sox. A sequence cut up may permit the Purple Sox to achieve a cushion within the standings.

The Purple Sox and Rangers cut up their season sequence, so the second tiebreaker (intradivision file) can be utilized right here. Getting into Friday, Boston is 28-18 in opposition to the AL East, whereas Texas is 25-27 in opposition to the NL West. So, the Purple Sox have the tiebreaker there, which means the Rangers must win 5 extra video games than them earlier than the season ends.

Playoff odds: 4.6 %

Yankees

Wanting upward, the Yankees enter the weekend three video games forward of the Purple Sox for the highest wild card. The Yankees started a four-game sequence in opposition to the Orioles in Baltimore on Thursday, and so they’ll have a three-game set in opposition to the White Sox at house earlier than internet hosting the Orioles for 3 video games subsequent weekend.

As Purple Sox followers seemingly know, they gained the season sequence in opposition to the Yankees this season. So, in the event that they win three extra video games than their rival earlier than the season ends, they’ll cross the Yankees within the standings.

With New York’s comparatively simple schedule to finish the season, although, Boston catching up within the standings is likely to be a tall activity. The Yankees are additionally three video games behind the Blue Jays for first within the AL East, so New York might nonetheless seize the division title.

Playoff odds: 99.9 %
Odds to win AL East: 9 %

Astros

The Astros nonetheless have a powerful likelihood at profitable the AL West. They’re really tied with the Mariners for first place coming into the weekend, however Seattle holds the tiebreaker. So, the Astros maintain a one-game lead over the Purple Sox for the second card spot within the American League.

The Astros and Mariners have a three-game set in Houston this weekend. After that, the Astros shut out the season with a pair of three-game units on the Athletics and on the Angels.

Boston gained the season sequence over Houston in August. So, if the Purple Sox simply win yet one more sport than the Astros earlier than the tip of the season, they’ll cross them within the standings.

Playoff odds: 92.1 %
Odds to win AL West: 41.2 %

Mariners

Similar to with the Astros, the Mariners are additionally a sport forward of the Purple Sox within the total standings. After their three-game set in Houston this weekend, the Mariners will tackle the Rockies and Dodgers at house to finish the 12 months.

Seattle and Boston cut up the season sequence, which means the intra-division tiebreaker must be used if each groups have the identical file. The Mariners have been barely higher in opposition to their division foes (31-18) than the Purple Sox (28-18). So, if Boston can’t make up that hole, it’d should win at the least two extra video games than Seattle to complete forward of it within the standings.

Playoff odds: 98.5 %
Odds to win AL West: 58.8 %

Projected seemingly AL seeds

1. Blue Jays (94-68)
2. Tigers (90-72)
3. Astros/Mariners (89-73)
4. Yankees (91-71)
5. Astros/Mariners (89-73)
6. Purple Sox (88-74)

Boston is most probably to complete with the ultimate wild-card spot, in response to FanGraphs’ projections. If that occurs, the Purple Sox would seemingly face the winner of the AL West within the opening spherical of the postseason earlier than doubtlessly taking over the Blue Jays within the ALDS.

As for the Guardians and Rangers, FanGraphs initiatives them to complete with 86 and 83 wins, respectively.