Will the Red Sox pivot to Nolan Arenado if Alex Bregman doesn’t sign?

Final night time, the Colorado Rockies signed RHP Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $8 million deal, and whereas that transaction might seem completely irrelevant to the Crimson Sox on the floor, it does go away Boston as the one group in baseball that hasn’t spent a cent on a serious league free agent thus far this winter. So yeah, get your pitchforks out!

However earlier than I mild up the torches and be part of you by getting knee deep into another article about how a lot of a shame I feel it’s that possession is appearing prefer it’s extra involved about profitable the upcoming labor conflict in December than the World Sequence in October, I’d wish to step again for a second and speculate — As a result of at this level, what I feel SHOULD occur vs. what I feel WILL occur are so divorced from one another, they could as nicely exist on completely different planets.

My thesis goes one thing like this: The Crimson Sox usually are not constructing a baseball group. They’re on an infinite worth assortment quest.

Particularly, they’ve complicated in-house baseball metrics that when mixed with monetary instruments spit out greenback values they imagine any participant is value over any variety of years. The aim? Get as many gamers as attainable below contracts creating surplus worth based mostly on these metrics and maintain agency when resisting temptation to amass productive gamers that can require long-term contracts that in the end bitter on the worth scale. In brief, the contract issues greater than the participant.

So signing extensions to gamers you have already got below management like Roman Anthony, Garrett Crochet, Ceddanne Rafaela, Kristian Campbell and Brayan Bello are in, and making large splashes on the free agent market are out.

I’m certain each group has some model of this plan, however the Crimson Sox below their more and more penny-pinching proprietor have taken abstinence in free company to a brand new degree. Within the now practically two and a half years since discount bin Breslow took over, the Crimson Sox have solely handed out 9 main league contracts to free brokers, and it solely will get weirder and extra shameful as they layers are peeled again.

To start with, eight of the 9 contracts have been given to pitchers (that ought to inform you one thing), and all eight of these pitchers signed for lower than $40 million. Right here’s that record:

If you happen to break this down additional, the 5 highest paid pitchers listed below are full of guys trying to rebuild their worth on the time from both accidents or a poor off subject repute, which is basically the Crimson Sox playing on hanging gold and reeling in large surplus worth. Once more, they preferred the upside of the contract greater than they feared the devalued participant.

So far as the underside three are involved? Their contracts are so small they hardly matter on this dialogue. What does matter nonetheless is the one exception to all of those guidelines: Alex Bregman.

He’s the one main league free agent hitter they’ve signed the final three winters. He’s the one free agent Breslow’s signed to greater than a two-year deal, and he’s the one man this group’s given a contract to value greater than $40 million, which ended up not even ringing true as a result of he opted out after 12 months considered one of his three-year, $120 million deal.

So in opposition to this backdrop, the place does this go away us with Bregman this winter?

Properly, each Jen McCaffrey and Buster Olney have indicated that the Sox have gotten what “they really feel” is “aggressive,” however good luck discovering out what that really means by way of {dollars} since at present’s baseball setting guards particulars about trades and pending free agent contract discussions nearer than we defend nationwide safety secrets and techniques.

Even Lou Merloni, a group broadcaster, is left questioning what “aggressive” means on this case:

On that notice, I’d wish to take a stab at this.

For the train, let’s assume a Win Above Alternative (WAR) is value $9 million on the free agent market, each as a result of that’s pretty darn close to the values some recent offseasons have landed at, and since we’re not getting anyplace near the bone except we assume the Crimson Sox used their metrics to assign some worth to a free agent.

From right here, we’ll get into heavier and heavier hypothesis, however let’s assume Bregman gives a projected 3.4 WAR in 2026 after which declines 0.5 WAR every season thereafter given he turns 32 in March. Why 3.4 WAR? Properly, it’s the midpoint between Bregman’s 2026 Steamer projection of 3.7, which is definitely the best of any remaining free agent left on the board for that system, and the marginally much less optimistic ZiPS projection, which has him coming in at 3.1 WAR.

Assuming a 5 12 months contract, that might get you to $108 million on the subject of on subject WAR manufacturing (see the desk under) given the $9 million value per free agent win and the typical of our Bregman on subject projections declining 0.5 WAR per season.

However that is Alex Bregman: The exception to the Crimson Sox free agent guidelines. The man who’s a transparent distinction maker within the clubhouse, and the participant rumored to be getting an “aggressive” supply from the group. So the query round Lou’s query turns into what constitutes “aggressive” within the Crimson Sox thoughts past that $108 million?

Properly, as a shot at midnight, I plugged in $5 million per 12 months for intangibles. These are issues that might be fully missed by the WAR projections. Being a pacesetter within the clubhouse, serving to information the younger guys by means of their improvement, and bringing postseason expertise to October. You realize, the issues championships are inclined to require past baseline expertise.

Anyway, added all up, right here’s what I feel an “aggressive” supply would possibly appear like from the Crimson Sox perspective.

Once more, that is full hypothesis, however that $133 million determine additionally works for one more cause. When added to the $40 million the Crimson Sox paid Bregman in 2025, it comes out to a complete of $173 million over six years, which simply barely tops the six-year, $171 million offer Bregman reportedly had on the desk final February from Detroit earlier than coming to Boston. So it serves each as an “aggressive” supply from the Sox perspective, and as a means for Bregman to save lots of face and never lose cash after turning down Detroit’s supply and struggling a quad damage that shelved him for seven weeks in 2025.

However now that we’re on this staring contest that feels all too just like final offseason, I’ve to surprise if something has actually modified. The extra I have a look at the monitor file of this iteration of the entrance workplace, the much less doubtless I really feel they’re to signal any large free agent bat that isn’t Bregman (as a result of they actually haven’t at any level during the last three winters!).

Whereas this recreation of hen is happening, there’s also growing speculation the Crimson Sox may interact with Bo Bichette and signal him to an enormous contract to play second base — However I feel the Bichette rumors are absolute hogwash. When was the final time the Crimson Sox acquired concerned with a free agent like that?

A stud in his 20s, a key piece wrestled away from a division rival? The man who blasted a three-run moonshot off the most effective participant in baseball in Sport 7 of the World Sequence in what ought to have been the best second of his profession as he fought again from a knee damage to get again on the sector for this spectacle:

As an alternative, he ended up getting pinch run for within the ninth inning (after accumulating one other clutch hit) as a result of his knee was nonetheless hampering him on the basepaths. And simply because baseball is a fickle mistress and likes to torment its victims, Isiah Kiner-Falefa (the man who pinch ran for him) fully botched the lead off third base on the Daulton Varsho grounder and ended up costing Toronto the World Sequence. (No person brings the hearth and brimstone just like the baseball gods!)

However now I’m getting off subject. The underside line is you could possibly knock me over with a feather if the Crimson Sox find yourself breaking the financial institution for for Bichette given their current monitor file, particularly with the query marks surrounding his protection and their current disasters at second base.

This seems like Bregman or bust on the subject of the Sox touchdown a free agent bat. And if it’s bust …

… I feel we go proper again to the very same spot we had been a 12 months in the past, which is Nolan Arenado as a fall again possibility if Bregman doesn’t take their closing supply. By most accounts, the Sox had been prepared to drag the set off on an Arenado deal final February earlier than they acquired inventive and handed Bregman the opt-out stacked holdover disguised as a three-year deal.

However this time, there’s no means Bregman chooses that model of contract. Not with the Qualifying Provide shed from his companies, not with him being a 12 months older, and never with the pending work stoppage lurking later this calendar 12 months. He’s taking what is going to absolutely be the most important free agent contract of his profession, and my guess is the Sox entrance workplace shouldn’t be transferring off no matter contract quantity they’ve already supplied. They don’t must in the event that they suppose they’ve acquired an Arenado deal of their again pocket.

Now granted, I in the end suppose Bregman takes no matter contract the Crimson Sox are providing, each as a result of I don’t suppose the monster deal is on the market for him (too many components lined up in opposition to him the final eight months), and I feel that if issues are comparatively shut cash smart, which they’d be if no greener pastures are actually on the market, he desires to be in Boston. (Once more, hypothesis on my half.)

However on the subject of the Arenado piece of this, there are too many components to disregard: Along with the talks final 12 months, Craig Breslow and Chaim Bloom have additionally been frequent buying and selling companions during the last 12 months. It’s laborious to think about Arenado’s title and reshaped worth haven’t come up in not less than a few of these conversations.

Digging deeper, right here’s a listing of all of the groups Breslow has made trades with throughout his time within the Sox entrance workplace. Not solely do the Cardinals come up essentially the most, however he’s really made offers with 20 of the opposite 29 groups, suggesting he’s fairly good at touchdown on agreements regardless of his repute in some circles of being troublesome to work with concerning some gamers. He’s been pressured to make use of the commerce market to make do whereas handcuffed financially by possession, and truly, regardless of all my complaints, I feel he’s really achieved a fairly good job right here all issues thought of.

Arenado’s contract additionally appears fairly straightforward to take care of right here contemplating how a lot St. Louis desires out of it. He’s owed $27 million in 2026 ($5 million already paid by the Rockies) and $15 million in 2027. The Cardinals can be joyful to shed just about any portion of that given their rebuild, and the Crimson Sox would doubtless look to restrict the quantity they took on so it didn’t anchor them with any unfavourable surplus worth. There’s clearly some center floor to be discovered from two guys who’ve already confirmed to work nicely collectively a number of occasions.

Going additional, Arenado can also be a veteran participant with a no commerce clause who desperately desires to win on the large stage earlier than the sand runs out of his hourglass. He’s precisely the kind of participant I’d count on to get a seemingly inexplicable bump in manufacturing if moved to a spot the place he has one final shot at glory. He posted a .708 OPS final 12 months by means of June twenty ninth when he suffered a sprained finger that set off a cascade of accidents and a .536 OPS down the stretch. With protection that’s nonetheless solidly above common on the sizzling nook, Arenado was on tempo to submit a couple of 2.0WAR season earlier than factor got here unglued.

For the Crimson Sox, two years of that type of manufacturing whereas they solely pay a fraction of the contract might be splendid of their thoughts. Piecing it along with the long run, take a look at the present SoxProspects.com record. Solely 5 of the highest 17 guys are actually place gamers, however 4 of these 5 are both second basemen, third basemen, or a shortstop, with three of them being Franklin Arias, Mikey Romero and Henry Godbout, who’re doubtless going to be knocking on the door between the top of this 12 months and the early a part of 2028.

In a world the place Arenado is below contract for simply two seasons, it provides the Sox an ideal transition window to guage these guys and slowly work them in in the event that they stick. And if not, they’re free to reenter the free agent market once more as they reset their infield. And so they’d must funds to do it with no large free brokers signed and the game doubtless below a brand new CBA by that time. Win-win for them.

After all, an Arenado commerce certain as hell doesn’t make sense from a “do every thing you may to win the World Sequence this 12 months” standpoint, however we’re not coping with a group that prioritizes that anymore (my pitchfork is nearly achieved being sharpened for Saturday). As an alternative, we’re coping with a group that refuses handy out long-term free agent contracts prone to find yourself underwater, and the hope there (once more, hypothesis) is that for those who simply stack so many “good contracts” up collectively on the roster, ultimately you’ll breakthrough and contend to your justifiable share of championships as a result of the excess worth will overwhelm every thing else.

I don’t personally imagine it’s that straightforward, however I do imagine that’s the baseline to the place we’re till the Sox present actual tangible indicators they’re transferring off this technique. I additionally imagine we’re getting Nolan Arenado if the Bregman stuff falls by means of.